Apart from Turkey, Hungary has also not yet ratified Sweden’s accession, but it is generally hoped that Budapest will also ratify after Ankara. The denouement comes at the end of a day when Erdogan appeared to raise his stakes on Sweden’s membership. Turkish President Erdogan shocked his audience on Monday when, before boarding a plane to Vilnius, he suddenly made what sounded like new demands. “I convey a message to those who have kept Turkey waiting at the door of the European Union for fifty years,” Erdogan said. Let them pave the way for Türkiye and then we will pave the way for Sweden.”
European and American officials were quick to announce that the two topics were unrelated, but behind the scenes it was also calculated that Erdogan’s ‘doubling of bets’ was just a ruse, which does not mean that there was a lie. a compromise has not yet been reached in Vilnius. According to an expert in Ankara, Erdogan’s statement could also mean that he wants to take more pro-Western action again.
Consultation hours
On Monday afternoon and evening there were hours of consultations between Erdogan, Stoltenberg and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. On the sidelines, Erdogan also met with Charles Michel, President of the European Council. According to Michel, it was a ‘good talk’ and it was agreed that relations between the EU and Turkey would be revived. Then there was another conversation between Erdogan, Stoltenberg and Kristersson, after which Stoltenberg finally announced in a press conference that Erdogan would propose Sweden’s accession to the Turkish parliament ‘as soon as possible’.
Stoltenberg explained Erdogan’s agreement by pointing out that Sweden had met all the demands made by Türkiye. Agreement on these demands resulted in a trilateral agreement between Türkiye, Finland and Sweden at the NATO Summit in Madrid last year. This then paved the way at the last minute to officially invite the two countries to join. Stoltenberg also pointed out that Sweden, as an EU member state, has promised Turkey that it will support Turkey’s accession to the EU.
Ahead of the NATO summit in Vilnius, the allies also appear to have reached an agreement on a compromise in discussions regarding Ukraine and NATO. As previously happened in Finland and Sweden, the country does not have to follow the formal path to joining, namely the Membership Action Plan.
The compromise formula, which has been circulating for some time, means that once a consensus is reached among the allies that Ukraine can become a member, the country will be able to join fairly quickly. Fifteen years ago, NATO had decided on this, but withheld Kyiv from the same Membership Action Plan (MAP) – effectively rendering the decision meaningless. This time, in a completely changed situation, the withdrawal of the MAP was explained as a step towards Ukrainian membership.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba reported on Twitter on Monday that MAP was no longer a requirement and expressed satisfaction with the decision which ‘shortens our path to membership’. He also called the Vilnius summit “the right time” to provide clarity on “Ukraine’s invitation to become a member.”
Left behind
However, it looks like Ukraine is still trapped behind the net. In fact, not much has changed: allies can still make demands if such decisions have to be taken, for example regarding the state of democracy or the military requirements that candidate countries must meet. US President Biden mentioned two such examples in an interview this weekend. “Even without MAP, Ukraine still needs to complete reforms before it can join,” said a Western diplomat who asked not to be named.
This means that Ukraine’s accession remains what it has always been: a political decision, to be taken at an undetermined time, at a time when all major allies, especially the United States and Germany, want to give full support to the decision. Meanwhile, NATO will make efforts, said Secretary General Stoltenberg, to bring Ukraine closer to membership through intensified cooperation.
In addition, the US, UK, Germany and France are seeking to declare long-term (material) support for Ukraine, which will also be followed by the EU and possibly the entire G7. Under the umbrella of this declaration, these countries, as well as other countries, can make individual commitments to provide long-term support to the country. However, it remains unclear whether these comprehensive ‘guarantees’ to Ukraine will be announced at the summit or soon after. According to German Chancellor Scholz, the contents are still being negotiated.
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