The Dutch economy remains very hot, with a personnel shortages are still the most cited obstacle in three-quarters of business sectors. Moreover, there will not be much relief for companies, because we estimate that unemployment will only increase slightly, from 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3.8 this year and 4.1 percent next year.
However, we still expect a relatively strong increase in GDP of 2.0 percent this year (see Figure 3). Higher minimum wages, increased allowances, pensions and benefits, and of course increased collective bargaining wages are expected to provide a pendulum in household consumption earlier this year. Increased purchasing power during this economic boom fueled the inflationary fire, which is expected to average 5.0 percent this year, despite a cap on energy prices.
For 2024, we forecast relatively limited economic growth of 0.9 percent. Many companies will struggle to grow further due to shortages of people, equipment, and locations, while housing developments fall into the slump. Increased household consumption and increased business investment will also cause more goods and services to be imported. At the same time, long-term staff shortages can also pose upside risks to the economy in the long term. This can stimulate companies to invest in innovation and labor-saving measures, which can lead to increased labor productivity after years of practical standstill.
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