In 2022, the British government under Prime Minister Boris Johnson launched a plan to send migrants to Rwanda, 6,500 kilometers away, to await their asylum procedures. In exchange for 140 million euros, the African country will provide protection for thousands of migrants. This policy should have a deterrent effect on migrants who try to cross the French Channel in rubber boats. But so far the plan seems to have failed miserably.

Asylum flights cancelled

This week, the UK Supreme Court again considered the question of whether the deportation of migrants to Rwanda is illegal or not. The court decided this case no less than three times before. The first two times it looked like the asylum flight would be approved. But earlier this year, British appeal judges ruled that the move was unlawful. Another setback for the British government.

Two months after the announcement of the 2022 asylum measures, the first obstacles are starting to appear. A plane is waiting on the tarmac at a British military airport to take dozens of asylum seekers to Rwanda. Knowing that many of the migrants would rely on the fact that they were victims of people smuggling or had family living in the UK, the British Home Office removed one migrant after another from the passenger list. A week before departure, the refugee list had dwindled from dozens of refugees to just a handful of people.

One passenger on board

Meanwhile, it became clear that Rwanda was not having a good time. The day before departure it turned out that the country could not fulfill its obligation to have translators in the country. For example, African countries still lack translators from Vietnam and Albania.

With only one migrant on board, the flight was canceled completely hours before departure when the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) ruled that Rwanda could not be seen as a safe country for asylum seekers.

However, this does not mean the end of plans to send asylum seekers to Rwanda. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Home Secretary Suella Braverman adopted the Johnson government’s plan. In fact, Sunak linked his political fate to asylum escapes. He promised Britain to stop the endless flow of migrant boats during his term as prime minister. Suella Braverman calls the asylum flight her ‘dream’.

Rwanda: safe or not?

The UK government is hopeful in its latest legal case regarding asylum policy. Government officials are confident that the UK Supreme Court will give the green light for the flights. British Home Office lawyers this week assured judges that Rwanda is a safe country where asylum seekers are treated well. The government also said it had assurances that the African country would not send migrants back to their countries of origin, as they may be in danger.

Opponents of deportation argue differently. Human rights organizations, including Human Rights Watch, say there is almost no room for political opposition in Rwanda. Press freedom in this country is also still poor. They believe Rwanda offers no future for underprivileged asylum seekers.

Even if British judges approve the deportation flights, the success of Britain’s migration policy remains uncertain. Recently, two airlines withdrew from operating flights to Rwanda. Flight and accommodation costs in Rwanda are around 70,000 euros higher than when migrants wait for asylum procedures in the UK. The expected deterrent effect is also not guaranteed.

The UK Supreme Court’s decision is expected in mid-December. Until then, Prime Minister Sunak and his Home Secretary will have to overcome many obstacles to make Britain’s asylum policy a success.