It remains unclear whether the global economy will experience a soft landing. According to macro economist Edin Mujagic, economists around the world are again looking for clues this month. “It keeps people busy,” he said.

The coveted leads are getting more and more, Mujagic knows. The latest clue comes from the purchasing managers’ index monthly figures. “This is a survey that was sent out to people in the management of large companies in almost all countries,” he explained. “They were then asked questions about new orders, jobs and things like that.”

According to Mujagic, the resulting index provides a good history and can reliably predict how the economy will perform. “The index can provide a score from 0 to 100, with a limit of 50,” he continued. “A score below 50 means the sector is shrinking, and a score above indicates growth.”

Number

This means that there is an economic downturn in most countries in the world. Indexes in Germany, Japan, France, other European countries, the UK and the US, among others, score below 50.

“That shows that the economy is not doing well,” he said. ’ And if there is still an index that is over 50, then that country is also on a downward trend. So this indicates that we may have a recession later this year.’

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Still, it’s not that bad, says Mujagic. On the other hand. “You can’t say it out loud, but it’s actually good news,” he continued. “If inflation is the biggest problem for many people and for the economy as a whole, and you want to fix it, you can’t escape the fact that the economy will grow less or not grow at all for some time.”

Future

He acknowledged that this would be disruptive in the short term, but stressed that the world would not cease to exist after 2023. ‘So this is good news from a long term perspective’, he concluded. “But the likelihood of a soft landing – a situation wherein inflation can be beaten without causing a recession – has shrunk this week.”