The promises came suddenly. After British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was taped, French President Emmanuel Macron also joined the pledge. France and Britain offer fighter jet training to Ukrainian pilots. Small problem, neither country has the F-16 that Zelensky had hoped for.

United States of America Voice

“It also made me laugh a bit,” said defense expert Patrick Bolder of the Center for Strategic Studies (HCSS) in The Hague. “France and England can offer training, but what kind of training?”

No F-16s will be delivered for now, Bolder said. “This first requires permission from the United States.” As a manufacturer and supplier of parts, America has a decisive voice. “As long as President Joe Biden doesn’t agree, Ukraine will have to wait. But when ‘yes’ is heard from the US, of course it’s useful if the pilots can already fly the F-16. It’s better to train in advanced than at the moment.”

Important fighter jet

The F-16 is the key missing piece to the puzzle, as Ukraine has previously received artillery, anti-aircraft systems and tanks. According to Zelensky, Western warplanes are needed to defeat Russia, both in front and behind. Fighter jets can’t just strike behind the front lines. They must also provide support to the ground forces.

Therefore, F-16 training on French or British soil is not an option for Ukrainian pilots for now. But in what way? “Perhaps pilots have been taught skills on other aircraft,” said defense specialist Peter Wijninga, also of the HCSS. “That way they’ll already have the basics in their pockets for when Western kits do become available. Although they’ll still have to get used to it.”

Then the question remains: why did Macron and Sunak promise training, when they said they would not send planes? President Mark Rutte asked for Zelensky’s patience two weeks ago during a visit to the Netherlands. The West is not yet ready to supply fighter jets.

Relationships are at stake

“But they will get there,” Bolder said. “The delivery of the tanks was also difficult at first. And in the end it all worked out. So is the F-16.” And Wijninga is also firm. Promising practice increases the pressure to actually succeed. “Otherwise, relations with Ukraine will be jeopardized.”

When the F-16 will be delivered is still a guess. Even with a ‘yes’ from the Americans it could be a long time before they actually fly over Ukraine. “Maintenance staff should also be prepared in advance.” Bolder started with a summary. “And what about the runways? They have to be longer, smoother and better quality. And there can’t be any rocks on them. But training for the pilots was promised. So the first staff was by then actually it might have been done.”