That FUND (isolated depression at high levels) it has flooded Half of Spain’s territory and which has kept residents in suspense over the weekend continued to rain this Monday, although with less intensity. Is it raining as much as the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) predicts? Does the Civil Protection of the Community of Madrid really need to send alerts via cell phones in the region? This notification, which was the first to be sent to a telephone in Spain of an actual state of emergency, has also raised a political controversy between the leaders maintain the action as well as Aemet’s predictions (among them the minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska or the president of the Community, Isabel Díaz Ayuso), and those who criticize him and claim “that it happened perfect the estimate“, as revealed by the Mayor of Madrid, José Luis Martínez-Almeida.

How much rain did it rain in Spain in this episode?

Severe storms have resulted in over 150 mm (or liters per square metre) of rain. So, at points like Magán (Toledo), 160.8 mm is accumulated. In Aemet’s main network, San Rafael’s record stands out, with 147.8 mm collected on Sunday.

Outside the official network, there are places in the most affected areas where rainfall reaches almost 200 mm. However, as emphasized by Mar Gómez, the portal’s meteorologist the time is“it’s not just raining in the central part. Last Sunday’s rain was also heavy in southwestern points, prominent in Cádiz. In that province, the San José del Valle station marked the national maximum of the main network, with 172.2 “Rain also occurred a lot in parts east of the country, mainly in Tarragona, where the Tortosa station recorded 117.2 mm of rainfall.”

How much rain has it rained in Madrid in the last hours? Aemet reminded that the recorded record could be broken and could even reach 120 liters per square meter.

As explained José Luis Camacho, spokesman for Aemet, “the Retiro station has recorded 74 liters (partly on September 3 and partly on September 4), still far from 87 liters in one day. The record has not yet been broken as the rain system is expected to extend from the south to the north, providing hours of rainfall over the same area. The system moved slightly to the west (about 50 km) and from late afternoon the rainfall shifted west of the Community of Madrid, giving records between 80 and 100 liters in many points”.

According to Mar Gómez, “it is expected that more rain will fall more in the center of the Community of Madrid and more limited in the western part, but with a very high accumulation. In fact, it is this amount that causes flooding and flooding .From 60 liters per square meter in one hour already considered heavy.

Aemet predicted a severe storm in Madrid on Sunday afternoon, with the red warning reduced to orange. A violent storm occurred a few hours later. Are you surprised by this or are you already dealing with the possibility?

As explained by a spokesperson for Aemet, “the weather forecast models prepared on Saturday show a steady and continuous precipitation situation for Sunday in the Community of Madrid at noon on Sunday. There is about a 70% probability of another possible scenario showing some movement, but the odds are high that the system will discharge approximately 100 liters of water in a 24 hour period over much of the Sierra, Metropolitan Area, and southern plains. At La Mancha Toledana and in southern Las Vegas, events began according to a scenario that planned,” Camacho said. In the early hours of the morning, he added, “it was observed that the system was moving slightly to the west (about 50 km) so that it was no longer affecting the metropolitan area and was moving to the Toledo axis, Valle del Alberche, Ávila, and was only affecting the metropolitan area.” southwest corner of the Community of Madrid. For this reason, the notification was changed, lowering the Sierra and Metropolitana notifications to orange and leaving those areas red and raising all adjacent areas to orange.”

Is DANA responsible for all the rain that also occurs in the interior of Indonesia?

Yes, all the rain was caused by DANA.

Residents of the Community of Madrid received a Civil Protection alert from the Security and Emergencies Agency on Sunday (beeps and messages) warning of “extreme risk of hurricanes” and asking them to stay home. How does this alert work? Who and how decides when to send it?

These messages use a technology called ES-Alert Population Alert System (also known as reverse 112) which was recently implemented in Spain. It is integrated into the National Vigilance Network and enables Civil Protection authorities to send warning messages widely and immediately to mobile phones located in areas affected by an emergency or disaster.

As explained by the Emergency 112 Community of Madrid spokesperson, the system belongs to the State, which provides the technology through the European Union, and the Autonomous Community joined the project.

The ES-Alert system was implemented on June 21, 2022 and is the result of a collaboration between the Ministry of Home Affairs and the Ministry of Economy and Digital Transformation. Sunday was the first time it was used to warn of extreme phenomena (only testing was done). Although in Spain we are not used to receiving these alerts on our cell phones, they are common in countries such as the US, Japan, Chile or the UK to warn of the danger of a hurricane, tornado, earthquake, tsunami or flood.

Meanwhile, Aemet issues meteorological alerts whenever adverse phenomena occur (which may cause serious harm to humans or material damage) based on a color scale: green (no meteorological risk); yellow (no meteorological risk to the general public, although there is a risk for certain activities); orange (significant risk, with unusual phenomena and a certain level of danger to ordinary activities) and red (extreme risk, with unusual meteorological phenomena of extraordinary intensity and with a very high level of risk for the population).

In Sunday’s case, it was the Civil Protection of the Community of Madrid who, based on the information provided by Aemet (red notice), decided to send the alert to the mobile phones of the people of Madrid: “In the Community of Madrid we have been testing at the site of this system for a year and a half, and this is the first time we have used it across the region, globally, in the face of a real emergency,” the spokesperson said. for Emergencies 112.

Are those mobile alerts really necessary?

“From my point of view, the warning was given correctly because there has been flooding in the west of Madrid and in Toledo, but in DANA, a few kilometers will make a difference. It is impossible to predict exactly where this major storm will go. fall. , that’s why the notices are posted all over Madrid,” explains Mar Gómez. “There is a very high probability that large amounts of water will fall on most of the central areas of the peninsula and that there will be floods and overflows. What the weather forecast shows is an absolute barbarity, and if it happened throughout the region, Madrid it would be a disaster, so for me the notification was completely justified.”

“Of course, we believe that it has been very successful and comfortable, and that the vast majority of citizens have acted responsibly,” defended a spokesman for the Emergency 112 of the Community of Madrid, the body that launched the alert. Responding to criticism of no rain on Sunday afternoon, he stressed that “weather models are not an exact science, it is known that it will rain heavily. We got the weather forecast from Aemet and based on that, we acted. “Maybe they got the timing wrong and it turned out later than they expected, but the rain is heavy,” he argued.

On Aemet’s part, they pointed out that the agency issues its notices color-coded and calibrated to agreed thresholds with Civil Protection, with which they have had a decades-long institutional partnership: “Aemet is not responsible for and will not comment on the delivery of messages via mobile phones however it is a common practice in certain events in many countries,” said one of his spokespersons.

Will we be receiving mobile alerts as regularly as on Sundays from now on?

Yes, but as the spokesperson for the Community of Madrid Emergency stated, they will only send it when there is a major emergency: “It must be used sparingly because it is a very invasive tool, citizens already receive a lot of money.” spam on your phone. But we have seen that it is very useful and from the Community of Madrid we are obsessed with reaching citizens, treating them in a mature way and informing them properly about what is going to happen so that they can take appropriate action. “Until 10 or 15 years ago we only had media, then we started using social networks intensively and these mobile alert systems complemented the process,” he explains.

“We understand that people may be shocked, but this is common in other countries to protect their populations and this is something we have to get used to. The first time we feel fear is natural, it is surprising. And I’m sure that the other CCAAs are taking notice that it’s a very effective tool,” he added.

Why is DANA behavior difficult to predict?

DANA is an atmospheric circulation discharge regulated by the blocking action of an anticyclone. In this case, one from the north (in the Azores) and one from the Mediterranean. Modeling their movement is complex and for this reason many models and statistical predictions are used. The evolution of the polar flow that gives rise to the DANA, its formation in the Southwest and the two phases of the organization of precipitation are quite well modeled at 24-36 hours At 3 or 5 days In view, they works with probabilistic scenarios and for this reason, Aemet did not issue warnings well in advance or issue impact estimates in sufficient detail,” said José Luis Camacho, a spokesman for the state agency.

His colleague Mar Gómez agrees, stressing that “DANAS is a complicated meteorological phenomenon because it is an isolated depression at high levels, outside the normal circulation of the atmosphere, so basically you have to monitor it hour by hour, minute by minute, because a lot of factors influence its behavior. It depends. where it is placed, it will leave more or less rain. It is known that it will rain heavily, with a high probability that it will be in the middle.”

Is it easier to predict the evolution of heatwaves?

“Yes, heat waves are easier to predict because we know there is an intrusion of warm air and that it will last for several days, with temperatures increasing and higher than normal, although the exact level it will reach is more difficult to determine,” said Mar Gómez.

When can we end this FUND?

According to Mar Gómez, this Monday we will experience the last heavy rain: “Towards the weekend, we are waiting for a new storm that could bring new rain, but its intensity will not be too great.”