COLUMN – by Prof. Joop van den Berg

The title above this story suggests a fight between two women, but that is another thing. With ‘Lientje’ being Caroline van der Plas referred to, nicknamed Lientje on the way. TINA is not a woman at all, but an abbreviation of terms that were fashionable in Great Britain under Margaret Thatcher: ‘There isn’t any alternative’. But TINA has made schools everywhere.

What the BBB has succeeded in countering is the attitude of the cabinet and coalition indicating that there is no alternative to its policies, not only in the area of ​​nitrogen reduction. It was the father’s attitude that rebuked: now do what you are told. It was especially the provinces that had to comply with this order, but without the assurance that the preliminary work they did would also be respected by the cabinet. Her attitude is like TINA’s, but the truth is that at least the Ministry of Agriculture has absolutely no idea what to do. Opinion polls show that voters do. The main problem, they say, is the low quality of most ministers.

There was a second reaction seen in these parliamentary elections and which was at least as important as the BBB’s great gain: the complete fragmentation of the provincial parliament. (I owe this figure to former Limburg deputy Joost van den Akker, who swiftly worked things out last week.) The number of single-seat parties in the various States has increased from 24 to 36. The total number of parties elected in Parliament has increased from 148 to 173. Therefore, the growth of the BBB does not preclude fragmentation. For example, Friesland (total 43 seats) and Zeeland (total 39 seats) each have six factions with one seat. As a result, the Senate will soon have 16 political groups out of a total of 75 seats, three of which will have one seat. It was also a form of resistance against TINA, but a bit futile.

So you could say, given the fairly widespread sympathy for the idea, that the GroenLinks and PvdA alliance has a chance of success in this election. It’s not easy. In the Senate, the alliance is slightly larger than before (15 seats instead of 14), but national figures, without taking into account turnout, show a decline. GroenLinks earns only in Limburg and nowhere else. PvdA was mainly victorious in the two southern provinces and in the city of Amsterdam, otherwise dominated by few losses. In the only province where both parties appear on a single list, Zeeland, there is little to lose.

This is somewhat reminiscent of the high expectations of 1946, when the PvdA was founded, which did not materialize.. At the same time, it is also the most important guarantee. The fact that PvdA and GroenLinks will soon work together as a parliamentary group in the Senate hasn’t made much of an impression. More is needed: centralized cooperation in the DPR, working on a shared minimum program and… a convincing list leader/leader. The fact that the SPs have misjudged in their own way by opposing such cooperation, is rather a sign to continue the path towards close cooperation, preferably with the SPs involved.

The most tragic aspect of this election was the havoc the BBB wreaked on CDA. It had been a retreat party and now it was half again. There may also be a need to think about closer cooperation with other Christian parties, which are now almost the same size as the CDA. Meanwhile, there are also major leadership issues there.

Anyone who argues that new elections are in fact obvious is going to meet a near-panic reaction, but why exactly? Is there really no alternative? The only reason to keep the coalition together is the prime minister’s wartime experience and the great economic uncertainty in European and global politics. A weighty reason to avoid the risk of his departure. But is that also reason enough?

This column appeared before at the Montesquieu Institute. Prof. dr. J.Th.J. van den Berg is his fellow Montesquieu Institute and professor emeritus at the University Leiden (parliamentary history) and Maastricht (parliamentary system). He is a former member of the Senate.