The parliamentary majority wants asylum seekers to be accommodated outside the European Union from now on, for example in Rwanda. The Netherlands therefore had to join forces with Denmark, which had been advocating for this for some time.

It’s no surprise that PVV, Forum, Groep Van Haga, SGP, BBB and Pieter Omtzigt support the Joost Eerdmans JA21 proposal. However, the VVD and CDA voted in favor.

That’s why it’s so scathing because there are huge differences of opinion within the coalition about migration policy. The party is no longer ruling out a cabinet fall, we have been hearing from insiders for some time now. That fall drew closer to the support of the Eerdmans asylum plan by the VVD and CDA. At least if they kept their wits about them.

Ruth was fixated

Under pressure from his own group and grumbling and running backwards, Rutte finally started making his move at the end of last year. So far without success.

Plans to temporarily delay family reunification have been rejected by the court. That is, from the compromises in the cabinet, that’s all backwards remains intact for D66 and ChristenUnie, laws that compel municipalities to accept asylum seekers. It was an uncollected ‘profit’ because the bill had been rejected by the Council of State. Therefore, it will not be handled by the DPR until April. If it comes, because the VVD and CDA will demand compensation for the failed family reunification act.

Rutte also made no headway in Europe. Not even a famous word magician like the Prime Minister would have succeeded in blowing up the two unfortunate pilots he brought success to in front of his own audience.

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Van der Burg expects more asylum seekers to come to our country this year than last year. That would be a disaster. Half of the municipalities that have arranged emergency shelters have now indicated they will stop doing so.

Tjeerd was shocked

At the same time, the likes of Tjeerd de Groot of D66 polarize themselves into an accident. Without caring he shouted the farmer and mass must disappear to save nature, but especially to build a house. Especially for immigrants, as the average Dutch person knows by now.

To spice this up once again, Minister Hugo de Jonge (Housing, CDA) devised plans to reserve more social rental housing for status holders than was already the case (1 in 8). He swallowed it for a moment, but his tone was set.

Rutte stands for monkey

Rutte also means monkey. Had he just started turning PvdA and GroenLinks into the archenemy of liberals in hopes of picking up the votes of JA21, BBB and PVV in the March 15th United States election, his own group would be working with these parties! Calculated on the most sensitive subject for VVD proponents.

And then the CDA also participates. Hoekstra had only recently been reinstated after his strident remarks about the cabinet’s nitrogen policy and then his party resurfaced.

Serious or not?

Should we take VVD and CDA support for the JA21 asylum plan seriously? Cynical voters – and now there are many of them – will have little faith. And understandable. Let’s make a list.

First point. It is election time and politicians promise everything and make unprecedented proposals. What’s left after March 15th?

Further, the asylum file has been deadlocked for years. The VVD uses manly language before every election (the party puts out special callers like Dilan Yesilgöz, Benthe Becker and Ruben Brekelmans) to put its head in its lap the day after the election.

It was no different at the CDA where progressive Protestants, working closely with the party leadership, crushed any resistance in their own circles to the unchecked influx of asylum seekers.

Third point, the VVD and CDA factions were known to never stand firm if this put their cabinets in jeopardy. And now?

And Finally Secretary of State in charge Eric van der Burg. He must speak to the Danes from a parliamentary majority. ‘Well within the bounds of an international treaty’, he immediately shouted, an unsatisfactory verdict because the Human Rights Court had already condemned a similar Rwanda plan by the UK some time ago (even though a British court later decided to give permission). And we all know how much Van der Burg wanted to let asylum seekers in: ‘the more, the better’. He’s not going to try, I hear you think.

The shelf is out

But still, the shelf is out. In society and in the ranks of the VVD and CDA. There are various kinds of considerations and differences in emphasis, however underline support for migration policies is now gone. And for the current government as well.

The CDA could still back out, with the dire hope of delaying final completion for another year or two.

VVD as putty

VVD still has a future. That is a future without Rutte, because sooner or later he will leave and, as is the case in politics, by definition unexpectedly.

VVD finally had to prepare for it. This involves questions such as leadership, courses and selection strategies. It is highly unlikely that in the post-Rutte era the VVD will again be able and willing to govern exclusively on the left. That’s wrong!

Light heels have potential

To the right of the VVD, the playing field has changed radically since Rutte took office. This is no longer about an isolated PVV and some electoral trash, but about substantial political power with great potential if JA21, BBB and Pieter Omtzigt form a right-wing alliance. 45 seats in parliament is certainly imaginable for such an alliance.

It is highly questionable whether VVD without Rutte would have become as big as it is today. It can be a medium sized party of about twenty seats. Then he could wait until he was invited to the light-right alliance’s formation table.

Only by sticking to Eerdman’s plan could the VVD present itself to voters as a serious right-wing party. Otherwise, the VVD would be a colorless middle ground with features of everything and everyone. Ideal for use as a caulk in cabinet formations.

Watch or participate

The current cabinet, meanwhile, is in a headlock. The VVD and CDA have sounded the alarm. The time to move forward and play in (European) bands is over. When Van der Burg returned from Copenhagen empty-handed or with no clear plan, that was the flame. But also vice versa, because D66 and ChristenUnie didn’t like the Rwandan plan one bit.

It can’t go well.

And anyone who thinks that the left-wing bloc will show up in parliamentary elections, led by a combination of PvdA and GroenLinks, should take a closer look at the opinion polls. The combo is currently on hold. A right-wing coalition emerged. And VVD is better off making sure that it participates than having to watch.

Paul Verburgt writes weekly at Wynia’s Week about politics and society.

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