It will be a matter of debate whether the world can keep temperatures below 2 degrees, the limit set by the international community as the final limit before global warming becomes truly dangerous. If all countries keep their pledge to be completely greenhouse gas neutral in the coming decades, the global temperature increase could remain at 1.9 degrees. It is questionable whether countries that have pledged zero emissions will meet their deadlines.
This can be seen from the new calculations of the Dutch Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) published on Monday afternoon. To achieve the global warming promise of 1.5 degrees (we have already reached 1.2 degrees), the world must emit as little greenhouse gases as it absorbs by 2050: net zero.
That goal is far from being achieved, PBL noted. Under current climate agreements, the world will still emit 36 billion tons of CO in 20502-‘equivalent’ emits too much, or two-thirds of the world’s current emissions.
Net zero emissions
Many countries have now announced the year they want to achieve net zero emissions. For Europe and America in 2050, for China in 2060, India promises a zero emission limit by 2070. Even if all countries comply, in 2050 countries like America will still lack CO.2emissions remain at 1.5 degrees, or 6 billion tonnes, calculate PBL.
“The current policies are not enough,” said PBL researcher Detlef van Vuuren when asked. ‘While it is very wise to keep temperatures as close to that 1.5 degrees as possible.’
Even if all countries that have not yet set a zero emissions year did the same – and adhered to it – global warming would exceed 1.5 degrees. “Then we will be on track for 1.6 or 1.7 degrees,” Van Vuuren said.
Behind these calculations is an important and optimistic assumption: that all countries that have declared zero emissions will first fulfill their long-standing climate promises and will from then go straight to zero emissions. “In practice, you can imagine that in countries like India, emissions may initially increase slightly,” Van Vuuren said.
This new PBL report is one of a series of calculations of the state of the climate that will be published this time. PBL’s climate calculator specifically studies greenhouse gases that are expected to be released into the air by 2050.
Maarten Keulemans
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