Any political party trying to avoid the Central Planning Board’s (CPB) reckoning will have to face off against Wim Suyker this year. The former head of programs at the Central Planning Agency still calculates party programs in his spare time.
Calculate the program in your free time. Why?
“My former boss, Laura van Geest, sent me a message on LinkedIn. He said that there were many programs that were not taken into account by the planning body this time, and gave an example Institute for Fiscal Studies in England. It calculates election programs based on public data. Shortly after, BVNL published its program; I then started counting them. Just out of curiosity if I could do that.”
How do you approach it?
“The party program is the starting point. Because what’s really there? For example, the BBB writes that they in time want to eliminate the reduction. Then I assume they only want to do this after the next cabinet term. In that case, I won’t accept it. I will then look for sources that indicate the costs of the plans the parties wish to implement in the next cabinet term. To achieve this goal, I looked primarily to the Ministry of Finance’s ‘reduction bible,’ and the answers to parliamentary questions regarding the million-dollar note and at previous times when similar plans were proposed.”
To what extent do your calculations approximate what the CPB does?
“If CPB plays in the Champions League, I play in the Champions Kitchen Division. The CPB calculation consists of two parts. The ex-ante part estimates the costs of the action taken, and the second part contains the economic impact of the action. I’ve only done the ex-ante part, and only given a rough estimate of the impact. For example, my purchasing power goes up or down, but by how much – unlike CPB – I can’t say. For a proper estimate, the second part must also be carried out, and more details about the plan are needed.”
There are only a few parties whose programs are taken into account by the CPB. Does it frustrate you?
“We must ‘taste’ the politicians: the differences between them must be revealed. I would rather see primaries as they are known in the United States in the Netherlands: politicians walking through the snow to voters to convince them. In the Netherlands, we rely on debates, voting guides and tallies: all of which provide additional information for voters, so we can judge politicians.”
What do you want to achieve with your calculations?
“I have no higher goal. I discussed it a little out of curiosity. I underestimated the attention paid to my work. Of course, the CPB always paid a lot of attention to its calculations, but I didn’t think that my work in the attic would lead to radio interviews and their references in political debates.”
Can we count on you again in the next election?
“Just look. It’s a lot more work than expected. When the next elections are held in this country in the spring, I probably won’t do it: I’ll be cycling a lot. But at least it keeps me off the rainy roads of autumn.”
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